SARS-Cov-2 incubation period according to vaccination status during the fifth COVID-19 wave in a tertiary-care center in Spain: a cohort study
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Jordi Cortés Martínez, Daewoo Pak, Gabriela Abelenda-Alonso, Klaus Langohr, Jing Ning, Alexander Rombauts, Mireia Colom, Yu Shen, Guadalupe Gómez Melis
Vaccination protected people from severe COVID, but did it also change the hidden countdown between infection and symptoms? This study found a more complicated answer than a simple yes or no.
Background: The incubation period of an infectious disease is defined as the elapsed time between the exposure to the pathogen and the onset of symptoms. Although both the mRNA-based and the adenoviral vector-based vaccines have shown to be effective, there have been raising concerns regarding possible decreases in vaccine effectiveness for new variants and variations in the incubation period. Methods: We conducted a unicentric observational study at the Hospital Universitari de Bellvitge, Barcelona, using a structured telephone survey performed by trained interviewers to estimate the incubation period of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a cohort of Spanish hospitalized patients. The distribution of the incubation period was estimated using the generalized odds-rate class of regression models. Results: From 406 surveyed patients, 242 provided adequate information to be included in the analysis. The median incubation period was 2.8 days (95%CI: 2.5–3.1) and no differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients were found. Sex and age are neither shown not to be significantly related to the COVID-19 incubation time. Conclusions: Knowing the incubation period is crucial for controlling the spread of an infectious disease: decisions on the duration of the quarantine or on the periods of active monitoring of people who have been at high risk of exposure depend on the length of the incubation period. Furthermore, its probability distribution is a key element for predicting the prevalence and the incidence of the disease. Keywords: COVID-19, Delta variant, Generalized odds-rate class of models, Incubation period, Infectious disease, Adenovirus-based vaccine
Transcript
Vaccination protected people from severe COVID, but did it also change the hidden countdown between infection and symptoms? This study found a more complicated answer than a simple yes or no. The incubation period is the elapsed time between exposure to a pathogen and the onset of symptoms.
It is the hidden countdown after infection, before a person feels ill. Vaccines have shown effectiveness, but concerns remained about possible decreases in effectiveness against new variants and about changes in the incubation period. Think of infection like receiving a letter with a delayed delivery.
The important question is not only whether the letter arrives, but how long it takes to appear. Earlier studies had not been specifically designed to estimate this waiting time according to vaccination status and vaccine type. This study therefore asked whether the Delta variant had a different incubation period in vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, and whether the time differed according to the vaccine administered.
The study used a structured telephone survey to estimate the COVID-19 incubation period among adults admitted to a hospital in Barcelona with a first confirmed infection. The Delta variant was assumed because it was highly prevalent during the hospitalization period, although the variant was not tested directly in the admitted patients.
Across the patients, the median incubation period was 2.8 days. The study estimated that ninety-five percent had an incubation period shorter than eight days. The main result was that incubation periods did not differ significantly by vaccination status, age, or sex.
There were slight differences by vaccine type, but they were not statistically significant. The time from infection to symptoms was broadly similar across vaccination groups, with estimated middle values falling between about two and three days.
This suggests vaccination status did not meaningfully change how quickly symptoms appeared in this study. A further check using only patients with a known exposure date produced a similar overall median incubation time, supporting the main estimate.
That check also estimated similar patterns by vaccine group: shorter times for the adenovirus-based group, followed by the mRNA-vaccinated group, with the non-vaccinated group longest. The Delta incubation time was almost three days, with about ninety-five percent of cases appearing within eight days.
The study found shorter incubation times than those observed with earlier variants. Earlier estimates had placed incubation times between 5.6 and 6.7 days, while other studies reported medians above the estimate in this study for Delta.
The result needs caution because the study included only patients hospitalized for COVID-19, not people treated as outpatients. More severe illness and higher viral load could have produced shorter incubation times in this group. The researchers also lacked some patient information that might matter for estimating incubation time, including how severe each patient's symptoms were.
Because the cohort included only patients hospitalized for COVID-19, the findings mainly describe that group and may not generalize to everyone with COVID-19. For this group of hospitalized patients, vaccination status alone did not clearly change the time before symptoms appeared.
That matters because quarantine and monitoring decisions depend on this hidden countdown.
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