Reporting delays of chikungunya cases during the 2017 outbreak in Lazio region, Italy
Overview3:15CCAI
paperi.ai
0:00 / 0:00
Mattia Manica, Giovanni Marini, Angelo Giuseppe Solimini, Giorgio Guzzetta, Piero Poletti, Paola Scognamiglio, Chiara Virgillito, Alessandra della Torre, Stefano Merler, Roberto Rosà, Francesco Vairo, Beniamino Caputo
During the 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Italy, people often became ill long before health officials knew an outbreak was happening. Even after detection, the typical delay was still long enough for transmission to continue.
Emerging arboviral diseases in Europe pose a challenge due to difficulties in detecting and diagnosing cases during the initial circulation of the pathogen. Early outbreak detection enables public health authorities to take effective actions to reduce disease transmission. Quantification of the reporting delays of cases is vital to plan and assess surveillance and control strategies. Here, we provide estimates of reporting delays during an emerging arboviral outbreak and indications on how delays may have impacted onward transmission. Using descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meyer curves we analyzed case reporting delays (the period between the date of symptom onset and the date of notification to the public health authorities) during the 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreak. We further investigated the effect of outbreak detection on reporting delays by means of a Cox proportional hazard model. We estimated that the overall median reporting delay was 15.5 days, but this was reduced to 8 days after the notification of the first case. Cases with symptom onset after outbreak detection had about a 3.5 times higher reporting rate, however only 3.6% were notified within 24h from symptom onset. Remarkably, we found that 45.9% of identified cases developed symptoms before the detection of the outbreak. These results suggest that efforts should be undertaken to improve the early detection and identification of arboviral cases, as well as the management of vector species to mitigate the impact of long reporting delays.
Transcript
During the 2017 chikungunya outbreak in Italy, people often became ill long before health officials knew an outbreak was happening. Even after detection, the typical delay was still long enough for transmission to continue. Emerging mosquito-borne diseases in Europe are difficult to detect and diagnose while the infection is first circulating.
Early outbreak detection enables public health authorities to take effective actions to reduce disease transmission. That is why quantifying reporting delays is vital for planning and assessing surveillance and disease control strategies during an emerging outbreak.
The reporting delay was the number of days between symptom onset and notification to the public health system. Cases were then separated by whether symptoms began before or after the first outbreak notification. It is like checking a town's fire alarm: the same delay means something very different before people know there is a fire and after the alarm has sounded.
Because the analysis included only notified cases, it could not include people who had no symptoms or did not seek medical care. Across the outbreak, the overall median reporting delay was 15.5 days, but it fell to 8 days after the first case was notified. Cases whose symptoms began after outbreak detection had about a 3.5 times higher reporting rate, although only 3.6% were notified within 24 hours of symptom onset.
The striking finding was that 45.9% of identified cases developed symptoms before the outbreak was detected. Before outbreak detection, the median reporting delay was 33 days; after detection, it was 8 days. The comparison also estimated that cases after detection were notified at a rate 3.45 times higher than cases before detection.
Cases had already begun appearing weeks before the outbreak was detected, with some symptoms starting seventy-two days earlier. After detection, reporting became much faster, but the picture makes clear how much earlier warning was lost. The delay between symptom onset and notification is critical because control measures can begin only after a case is detected.
Even after the outbreak was detected, the median delay of 8 days was comparable to the infectious period of 5 to 8 days. As a result, the average reduction in days when onward transmission could occur was only 8%, even assuming that notification alone prevented further transmission.
The results suggest that public health authorities should increase travelers' awareness of possible health threats and build systems that detect cases early. They should also plan surveillance and management of the local mosquito population, reducing the risk that an imported infection leads to local transmission and an outbreak.
Finding cases quickly matters because control measures cannot begin until a case is reported. In this outbreak, recognizing the danger cut delays sharply, but not enough to stop much of the opportunity for onward spread.
A derivative work by Paperi · AI-generated script, voice and captions
· pages and figures unaltered
Made with Paperi.
Drop in a research PDF — get a narrated video walkthrough like this one,
with highlights that follow the narration. Free to start.
Michael P. Dzakovich, Elaine A Le, Alvin L Tak, Shaji K. Chacko
Spinach is not chemically simple: its leaves contain a surprisingly varied collection of protective compounds, and the amount can differ greatly from one variety to another. That matters for nutrition research because you cannot study what you cannot reliably measure.Spinach is not just rich in flavonoids, it contains a surprisingly diverse chemical profile that older methods only partially captured. This study measures thirty-nine compounds in eleven and a half minutes, while processing forty-eight samples in about an hour.
Lisa J. Young, Yong Chen, Jose M. Alvir, Tom Burke, Enrico Ferri Grazzi, Ian C. Winburn
A bleeding event is not only a medical problem. In adults with haemophilia A, more bleeding was linked with poorer daily life and a much larger loss of work productivity.What changes when bleeding events become more frequent? In this European cohort, both health-related quality of life and work productivity declined as annual bleeding events increased.
Clare Primiero, Brigid Betz‐Stablein, Nathan Ascott, Brian D’Alessandro, Séraphin Gaborit, Paul Fricker, Abigail Goldsteen, Sandra González-Villà, Katie L. Lee, Sana Nazari, Hang Thanh Nguyen, Valsamis Ntouskos, Frederik Pahde, Balázs Pataki, Josep Quintana, Susana Puig, Gisele Gargantini Rezze, Rafael García, H. Peter Soyer, Josep Malvehy
A skin-scanning system can be good at judging one spot, yet still miss the person around it. This paper asks whether the whole body, medical history, and change over time can make that judgment safer.Skin-cancer AI can outperform dermatologists in carefully controlled experiments, but what happens when it sees the whole patient, unfamiliar lesions, and real clinical context? This protocol builds the data pipeline to find out.